2024 NFL draft Teams that could trade up down in Round 1

One element of any NFL draft that keeps us all on our toes is the possibility of a trade -- or more accurately, several of them -- in the first round.

The reality is that almost any team could make a trade on Day 1, but forecasting the more minor moves is hard to do; they are often the byproduct of how the board unfolds once the event begins. Last year, we saw 43 total trades over the three days of the draft (a record for the common draft era, per ESPN Stats & Information), and seven of them happened during Round 1. There were nine trades in the first round the year before, too.

So who could move around on Day 1 this time around? Let's look at teams that would be logical trade-up or trade-down candidates and pick apart the calculus behind those possible moves. We'll start with franchises that might move up and go in order of these teams' current first-round draft slot.

Jump to teams that could: Trade up | Trade down

TRADE-UP CANDIDATES New York Giants

First-round slot: No. 6

The Giants have not hid their interest in considering a quarterback in this year's draft -- Daniel Jones struggled last season before tearing his ACL -- but it's far from a certainty that one of the top four passers will be there at pick No. 6. There are so many factors the Giants must consider if they are indeed intent on a QB in Round 1, not the least of which is the cost. It sounds steep, but I would imagine that if they engaged the Cardinals at No. 4, for instance, that Arizona would start things off by asking for a 2025 first-round pick to make the deal happen. That's a lot to move up two spots but might be what it takes if New York wants a quarterback that badly.

Interestingly, only three times in the common draft era has a team traded into the top five for a QB on draft day, most recently the Bears for Mitchell Trubisky in 2017, per ESPN Stats & Information. And New York currently has six picks total this year, tied for the second fewest in the league.

New York Jets

First-round slot: No. 10

This team is all-in this season, and if the opportunity to move up a little bit to grab one of the top three receivers is in play, would the Jets really ignore that chance? I think not, as they would have an electric offense with a healthy Aaron Rodgers throwing darts to a receiver room of Garrett Wilson, Mike Williams and, say, Washington's Rome Odunze -- as long as the protection up front holds up. The Jets don't have a second-rounder, though, which could limit how far up they could move. They have seven total picks.

Minnesota Vikings

First-round slots: Nos. 11, 23

Perhaps no team has seen more trade speculation than Minnesota, which of course is looking hard at the available quarterbacks after the departure of Kirk Cousins this offseason. While Sam Darnold was added as a potential holdover option, the Vikings already own two valuable first-round picks and nine total selections that could be used to make a push up the board -- perhaps for one of LSU's Jayden Daniels, North Carolina's Drake Maye or Michigan's J.J. McCarthy.

The cost would be more than just those two picks to get into the top five, though -- it'd probably require Minnesota's 2025 first-rounder to be attached to any deal. Calls to the Patriots (No. 3), Cardinals (No. 4) or Chargers (No. 5) would be entirely logical.

Denver Broncos

First-round slot: No. 12 

Denver's quarterback depth chart is razor thin, as the team has only Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci under contract right now. Coach Sean Payton has not dismissed a trade up, but there is a complicating factor in play: Denver does not own a second-round pick in this year's draft, leaving the team short a valuable trade chip. In all, the Broncos have eight selections in this draft, including three in the fifth round.

That being said, Denver figures to at least explore the possibility of moving up to snag a signal-caller, absent the team feeling strongly that Stidham can be its starter. And again, picks Nos. 3, 4, 5 and maybe 7 could be in play.

Las Vegas Raiders

First-round slot: No. 13

Another team that has addressed the possibility of a move up publicly, the Raiders have all sorts of options on the table. But the most fascinating would be a move up the board, as the team has been linked to LSU's Daniels -- though a move high enough to get him might be unlikely. Is it Daniels or bust for Las Vegas in terms of move-up options? That part is unclear, but the organization's unwavering stance that anything that makes the team better is up for discussion makes this a fun team to watch. The Raiders have eight picks, including one in each round and an extra seventh-rounder.

Buffalo Bills

First-round slot: No. 28

Following the trade of Stefon Diggs, Buffalo's need at wide receiver only grew -- and by a lot. While this class offers historic depth at the position, the chance for Buffalo to land a starting perimeter receiver best exists within the first 20-25 picks of this year's draft, a small notch ahead of its current 28th pick. GM Brandon Beane has moved up in the first round in four of the past six drafts, as he is unafraid to pursue a particular target.

In my own estimation, jumping the line for LSU's Brian Thomas Jr. or Texas' Adonai Mitchell would be good business by Buffalo. Each would provide both size and speed at the position, and it might well require a move into the 17-23 range to land one of them. While the Bills don't have a third-rounder, they do have 10 picks at their disposal.

San Francisco 49ers

First-round slot: No. 31

The 49ers need offensive line reinforcements, but so do a lot of teams ahead of them. Given that San Francisco is working with 10 picks in this year's draft and has a roster with very few holes, GM John Lynch has an opportunity to be aggressive to move ahead of other tackle-needy teams in this range of the draft -- including Dallas at No. 24, Green Bay at No. 25 and Baltimore at No. 30.

It's hard to specifically pinpoint teams in the late teens or early 20s that are motivated to move down (that's the cross-section of teams that feel they are not far from being bona fide Super Bowl contenders), but I've earmarked San Francisco as a team to watch in case the offensive tackle run happens fast -- as expected. Maybe someone like Georgia's Amarius Mims could be on the board.

Teams that could trade into the first round

We might also see some teams trade into the back end of Round 1, and both the Panthers at No. 33 and Patriots at No. 34 need wide receiver reinforcements. That would make them logical trade-up candidates if they felt their lists of preferred prospects at the position were shrinking late on Day 1, with so many teams with a WR need picking late. To be clear, this is not based off any intel -- it's just something I have pondered as I have gone through the exercise of multiple-round mock drafts and seen how fast the pass-catchers could fly off the board in Round 1.

TRADE-DOWN CANDIDATES New England Patriots

First-round slot: No. 3

I've been consistent in my stance that the Patriots should take whichever quarterback out of Daniels and Maye falls to them at No. 3, feel really good about it and spend the rest of their draft supporting that player with better protection and pass-catchers.

But I'm not naïve to the idea that if New England was not enamored by any quarterback prospect available, it could move down in a swap with any of the interested partners -- think somewhere in the Nos. 11-13 range -- for what would surely be a haul of picks. Any deal would no doubt include multiple first-rounders, and such a trade would allow the Patriots to address other needs and likely acquire future draft capital. The Patriots have completed 90 draft-day trades since 2000, 16 more than any other franchise, per ESPN Stats & Information. Could we see another move early on Day 1?

Arizona Cardinals

First-round slots: No. 4, 27

Arizona has a firm belief in quarterback Kyler Murray, so it's only logical that the Cards will listen to calls on the No. 4 pick from teams looking to move up for one of the core four quarterback prospects. GM Monti Ossenfort executed a trade down from No. 3 to No. 12 last year, and subsequently moved back up to No. 6 to take offensive tackle Paris Johnson Jr. A similar path would be sensible to me this year, as the risk Arizona runs by trading down too far would be missing out on the top three wideouts in the class: Ohio State's Marvin Harrison Jr., LSU's Malik Nabers and Odunze.

If Arizona were to be a dance partner with Minnesota at No. 11, a trade back up into the top 10 with a willing partner would be less cost prohibitive (I'll dive into the Titans as a fit there in a moment). Notably, the Cardinals are tied for the most draft picks this year at 11.

Los Angeles Chargers

First-round slot: No. 5

Coach Jim Harbaugh has a business card he hands out with a set of life rules, and one of them is "Don't try to win every fight in the first round." That isn't likely a reference to the NFL draft's first round, but it's a good reminder that this is the start of the process for the Chargers in reshaping their roster around quarterback Justin Herbert. Acquiring more assets might be exactly what the Chargers are looking to do this year, as they have nine picks and teams targeting a quarterback early will surely call them. Again, think picks in the Nos. 11-13 range as the potential trade-down targets.

The Chargers joined the Dolphins as the only teams that did not make a single draft-day trade last year. And per ESPN Stats & Information, the Chargers made only five total draft-day trades under former GM Tom Telesco over 11 years (2013-23 drafts), the fewest in the NFL in that span. So we'll see if the new regime is more open to deals on draft night.

Tennessee Titans

First-round slot: No. 7

Hear me out on this: Basically every mock draft these days understandably has Tennessee taking Notre Dame left tackle Joe Alt. He's a terrific player whom I view as the best OT in the class and would surely fill Tennessee's biggest remaining need. But if the Titans feel that the top tier of tackles is more closely clustered -- rather than one player standing well above the rest -- then they could be a team that looks to move down a handful of spots in an effort to gather more selections and still land one of the best two or three tackles in the class.

If Tennessee were to slide down to the early double-digits range, any of Penn State's Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Oregon State's Taliese Fuaga or Alabama's JC Latham might be available. Tennessee currently has seven picks and no third-rounder.

Chicago Bears

First-round slots: Nos. 1, 9

Let's be clear -- we're discussing the Bear's pick at No. 9 here, not their first-overall selection. And we'll make this one very straightforward: Chicago enters the draft with just four picks, the fewest of any team in the NFL. But it is also the only team with two top-10 picks, so it's well-positioned to add major impact players. If GM Ryan Poles wants to add a little more draft capital, a small move down could easily take care of that while also netting the Bears an impact prospect.

New York Jets

First-round slot: No. 10 

The lone team that we have in both categories is the Jets. There's a bit of a debate about whether the Jets should use No. 10 on someone like Georgia tight end Brock Bowers to provide instant impact or address the offensive line to add depth behind veteran additions Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses. Given that the team is currently without a second-round pick, a trade down to recoup some capital should be thrown in the debate, as well.

If the Jets are planning to bypass a first-round offensive lineman, they could seek out teams that are prepared to be in the mix for one of the top tackles available but worried their preferred targets will not fall to them. An example would be the Saints at No. 14.